Joe Biden Holds Lead Over President Trump, But Race Tightens: IBD/TIPP Poll

published on : 21 Sep 2020 10:47 AM
Written by : Jed Graham, Investor's Business Daily

Joe Biden Holds A 5.6-point Lead Over President Donald Trump Among Likely Voters, A New IBD/TIPP 2020 Election Poll Finds.

Joe Biden Vs. President Trump

Biden Leads President Trump, 49.5% To 43.9%. Another 1.5% Say They'll Vote For Another Candidate, While 4.9% Are Not Sure Who They'll Support. Biden Holds A 45%-38% Lead Among Likely Independent Voters And 93%-5% Among Democrats. Trump Leads 94%-4% Among Republicans.

Trump Narrows Gaps

The Race Has Tightened Somewhat Since Early September, When An IBD/TIPP Poll Of Registered Voters Showed Biden With An 8-point Edge, 49%-41%. Since Then, Trump Has Narrowed The Gap Among Independents And Won Back More Republicans. Among Registered Voters, The New IBD/TIPP Poll Finds Biden Leading By 4.5 Points, 47.9%-43.4%.

Among Registered Voters, Trump's Deficit Among Independents Narrowed To 4 Points (42%-38%) From 8 Points (42%-34%). His Advantage Among Republicans Grew To 88 Points (92%-4%) From 83 Points (89%-6%).

Biden's Lead Among Registered Voters Is Now The Smallest Since The Start Of June, When He Led 45%-42%. Trump's Response To Protests And Unrest Over George Floyd's May 25 Killing And The Summer Coronavirus Wave Appeared To Have Damaged His Reelection Prospects. Yet Some Of That Damage May Be Healing Amid The Jobs Recovery And The Ebbing Of New Coronavirus Cases Through August And The First Half Of September.

Joe Biden's Winning Formula

Still, Biden Has Three Things Going For Him That Add Up To A Clear, If Hardly Comfortable, Lead. Trump Fares Worse Among 2016 Voters Who Supported Him Than Biden Does Among Those Who Voted For Hillary Clinton. Trump Voters In 2016 Now Back Him, 86%-11%. Clinton Voters Back Biden, 92%-3%.

Meanwhile, Americans Who Voted For Another Candidate In 2016 Back Biden, 65%-4%. Plus, Those Who Sat Out The 2016 Election Or Are Newly Eligible To Vote Support Biden, 57%-28%.

Demographic Groups

Biden Has Narrowed Trump's 2016 Advantage Among White Voters, Trailing Trump 44%-51%. Pew Research Says Trump Won Among White Voters In 2016, 54%-39%.

However, Trump Could Do Better Among Hispanic Voters Than His 28%-66% Deficit In 2016. He Trails Biden Among Hispanics, 35%-58%.

Biden Has A Big Lead Among Voters Age 65 And Up, 58%-39%. Trump Won Among Senior Citizens In 2016, 53%-44%, Pew Says. That May Partly Reflect Disapproval Over Trump's Handling Of The Pandemic, With Death Rates High Among Seniors. The September IBD/TIPP Poll Found That 35% Of American Senior Citizens Gave Trump Positive Marks For His Handling Of The Coronavirus, While 57% Disapproved Of His Performance.

How Committed Are Biden And Trump Voters?

How Secure Is Joe Biden's Advantage Over Donald Trump? A Number Of Questions In The New IBD/TIPP Election Poll Try To Tease That Out.

President Trump Has A Slight Advantage When It Comes To Voter Intensity. Among Those Who Intend To Vote For Trump, 71% Back Him Strongly, Vs. 67% Among Intended Biden Voters.

IBD/TIPP Finds That 18% Of Registered Voters Say They're At Least Somewhat Likely To Change Their Mind Before Election Day. Yet Just 14% Of Intended Biden Voters Say They May Change Their Mind, Vs. 24% Of Intended Trump Voters.

However, More Undecided Voters Are Leaning Toward Voting For Trump, 24%-18%.

Despite Biden's Polling Lead, Just 41% Of Voters Expect Him To Win, While 44% Think Trump Will Prevail. Meanwhile, 49% Think Most Of Their Neighbors Will Vote For Trump, While 37% Think Their Neighbors Will Mostly Back Biden.

The New IBD/TIPP Election Poll Reflects An Online Survey Of 1,022 Adults, Including 962 Likely Voters, From Sept. 16-19. The Estimated Margin Of Error Is 3.3%.

The Rare Mid-month September IBD/TIPP Poll Offered An Early Look At How Voter Intentions May Translate Into Actual Votes. Starting Oct. 12, The IBD/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll Will Provide Daily Updates Of The Biden Vs. Trump Race. TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's Polling Partner, Shifted To An Online Poll Amid The Coronavirus Pandemic. However, The Presidential Tracking Poll Will Rely Primarily On Live Phone Interviews That Will Be Supplemented With Online Surveys.

The IBD/TIPP Poll, One Of Only Two Polls To Predict Trump's Victory In 2016, Has Been Recognized As The Most Accurate Pollster In Recent Elections.

Please Click here To Read The Original Article In Investor's Business Daily.