News

Consumer Confidence Rebounds Slightly As States Ease Coronavirus Restrictions

published on : 06 May 2020 7:00 AM

Americans’ views on the economy brightened somewhat in May, following the largest decline in more than six years last month, as states relax coronavirus-induced lockdowns, and the federal government’s historic stimulus package provides relief to U.S. households amid record job losses, according to the latest reading of the Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a monthly measure of consumer confidence. The index edged higher by 1.9 points, or four percent, this month, to a score of 49.7, after posting a 11.3-percent drop in April, which was the largest monthly decline in the reading since October 2013. At the same time, the index lingers in pessimistic territory for the second consecutive month, suggesting that while Americans are optimistic that the worst of the economic damage from the coronavirus crisis is behind us, uncertainty over how long the economy will take to reach full recovery continues to weigh on consumers’ minds. This month’s rebound in consumer confidence was broad-based, as 17 of the 21 demographic groups that Investor’s Business Daily and TechnoMetrica track each month posted gains in the index, up from four in April. In addition to the headline indicator, IBD and TechnoMetrica publish three subindexes: the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, the Personal Financial Outlook component, and the Confidence in Federal Economic Policies component. This month, the Six-Month Economic Outlook subindex rose by 4.3 points, or 11.3 percent, to a reading of 42.3, up from a more than three-year low of 38.0 in April. The Personal Financial Outlook component improved 2.7 points, or 5.4 percent, in May, to 52.9, marking the subindex’s 79th straight month in optimistic territory. Meanwhile, the Confidence in Federal Economic Policies subindex was the only component measure to post a decline this month, falling 1.3 points, or 2.4 percent, to a still-optimistic score of 53.8.

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Nervous Democrats Hope Biden’s ‘Historic’ Lead Doesn’t Become Another Historic Polling Fail (Mediaite)

published on : 13 May 2020 09:44 AM

While former Vice President Joe Biden has held a steady lead over President Donald Trump in 2020 presidential election polls, early poll numbers may not be entirely predictive of the actual election results, as discussed in the following article from Mediaite. Writer Rudy Takala notes that a number of national polls on the 2016 presidential race had overestimated Hillary Clinton’s support, as some voting blocs, including minorities, ultimately did not turn out for Clinton to the degree pollsters had expected. Meanwhile, Takala points out that the IBD/TIPP Poll was the “most accurate pollster” in the 2016 election.

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Demand for cars rises as fear of public transportation takes hold (Houston Chronicle)

published on : 14 May 2020 03:22 PM

In the following article, Amanda Drane of the Houston Chronicle discusses the latest findings of TechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index, which showed new vehicle purchase intent rising to an all-time high in May, as more urban residents turn to cars as a socially distant way to travel amid the coronavirus outbreak. The index, our monthly measure of consumers’ intent to buy or lease a new vehicle within the next six months, climbed 44 points, or 32.4 percent, this month, to a reading of 180.0, the highest since TechnoMetrica began tracking the measure in February 2007. May marks the second straight month in which the index has reached a record high, indicating strong pent-up demand for new vehicles as a result of social distancing and stay-at-home orders aimed at halting the spread of the coronavirus. Demand picked up across nearly every demographic group this month, our survey shows. In May, 25 out of the 26 groups that TechnoMetrica tracks each month posted gains in the index over April. The Northeast displayed the largest growth in auto demand among all regions, posting a 45-point gain in the index’s three-month moving average between March 2020 and May 2020, from 110.0 to 155.0. The West was not too far behind, with an increase of 38.2 points during the same period, from 110.8 to 149.0. Residents in the South posted a 33-point gain in the three-month moving average, from 106.6 to 139.6, while the Midwest improved by 16.1 points, from 103.8 to 119.9. In terms of area type, new vehicle purchase intent increased most dramatically among urban dwellers, who displayed an 85.8-point surge in the three-month moving average between March and May, from 116.1 to 201.9. The suburbs reported a comparatively modest gain of 12.2 points, from 103.8 to 116.0, while rural America lost ground, dropping eight points, from 106.8 to 98.8. When it comes to vehicle preferences, our survey shows that demand is shifting away from larger vehicles towards smaller types, likely fueled by urban residents’ migration to cars. In May, compact cars (20.4 percent), mid-size cars (17.1 percent), sub-compact or MINI cars (11.6 percent), and small SUVs (11.5 percent) were Americans’ most preferred vehicle types. Back in March, small SUVs, large SUVs, and pickup trucks had topped the list, at 20.5 percent, 19.5 percent, and 15.0 percent, respectively. The surge in urban demand may also be behind a growing appetite for luxury vehicles among U.S. likely vehicle buyers. This month, a record 37.1 percent of likely buyers say that they are likely to acquire a luxury vehicle as their next new auto purchase, up from 14.7 percent in March. Looking ahead, a release of pent-up demand should propel auto sales in the near term. This month, close to one in five (17.9 percent) Americans who say that they are likely to acquire a new vehicle in the next six months plan to make their auto purchase within the next one month, up from 11.5 percent in March.

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Survey: Coronavirus Sparks Record Demand for New Cars (Newsmax)

published on : 13 May 2020 10:37 AM

New vehicle demand hit a record high in May, as concerns about catching the coronavirus compel urban residents to choose cars over public transportation or ride-sharing services, notes Jeffrey Rodack of Newsmax in his analysis of TechnoMetrica’s latest Auto Demand Index, a monthly measure of consumers’ intent to buy or lease a new vehicle within the next six months. The index surged 44 points, or 32.4 percent, this month, to a reading of 180.0, the highest score since TechnoMetrica began tracking the measure back in February 2007. The rise in auto demand was widespread, as 25 out of the 26 demographic groups that TechnoMetrica tracks on a monthly basis posted month-over-month gains in the index. In terms of region, the Northeast has displayed the fastest growth in new vehicle purchase intent over the last few months. Between March 2020 and May 2020, the Northeast has exhibited a 45-point gain in the index’s three-month moving average, from 110.0 to 155.0. Among area types, demand increased most significantly in urban communities, climbing 85.8 points between March and May, to a reading of 201.9. The upswing in urban demand is likely fueling a shift in consumer preferences away from larger vehicles, such as SUVs and pickup trucks, towards smaller vehicles, our survey suggests. When asked about the type of vehicle they would likely acquire as their next new auto purchase, one in five (20.4 percent) likely buyers preferred a compact car, followed by a mid-size car (17.1 percent), a sub-compact or MINI car (11.6 percent), and a small SUV (11.5 percent). In March, small SUVs, large SUVs, and pickups represented the most preferred vehicle types among U.S. likely buyers. Urban residents’ growing appetite for cars may also be behind a rise in luxury demand. Nearly two in five (37.1 percent) likely buyers would prefer a luxury vehicle for their next new auto purchase, the largest share on record, up from 32.8 percent in April and 14.7 percent in March. Finally, as coronavirus restrictions begin to ease, we expect that strong pent-up demand for new vehicles will bring a rush of potential customers to dealer lots and showrooms in the near future. Hence, close to one in five (17.9 percent) likely buyers plan to make their new vehicle acquisition within the next month, compared with 11.5 percent in March.

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U.S Auto Demand Accelerates to Record High as Cities Shift to Cars

published on : 13 May 2020 07:00 AM

Americans’ demand for new vehicles climbed to its highest level on record this month, as urban residents turn to cars due to concerns about catching the coronavirus on public transportation or ride-sharing services, according to the latest reading of TechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index, a monthly measure of consumers’ intent to buy or lease a new vehicle within the next six months. The index surged 44 points, or 32.4 percent, in May, to a score of 180.0, the highest score since TechnoMetrica began tracking the measure back in February 2007. This marks the second straight month in which the index has set an all-time high, indicating strong pent-up demand for new vehicles amid coronavirus-induced lockdowns. The growth in auto demand was broad-based, our survey shows. In May, 25 out of the 26 demographic groups that TechnoMetrica monitors each month posted gains in the index, compared with 21 in April and 22 in March. Also, 15 segments reported record levels of new vehicle demand this month. Among regions, the Northeast has displayed the greatest improvement in purchase intent over the past few months. The region has gained 45 points in the index’s three-month moving average between March 2020 and May 2020, climbing from 110.0 to 155.0. When it comes to area types, urban communities saw the largest spike in auto demand, soaring 85.8 points between March and May, from 116.1 to 201.9. The surge in urban demand is reflected in a notable shift in overall consumer preferences away from larger vehicles, such as SUVs and pickups, towards smaller types. This month, compact cars were the most preferred vehicle types among likely buyers, garnering a 20.4-percent share of likely buyers, followed by mid-size cars, at 17.1 percent, sub-compact or MINI cars, at 11.6 percent, and small SUVs, at 11.5 percent. In March, small SUVs, large SUVS, and pickups had topped the list. Increased demand among urban residents has also likely fueled a growing appetite for luxury vehicles. Nearly two in five (37.1 percent) likely buyers would prefer a luxury vehicle as their next new auto purchase, the largest share on record. This is up from 32.8 percent in April and 14.7 percent in March. Looking ahead, automakers and dealers should prepare for a rush of likely buyers in the near term. Close to one in five (17.9 percent) respondents who say that they are likely to acquire a new vehicle in the next six months plan to do so within one month’s time, up from 11.5 percent in March.

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Financial Stress Eases Amid Coronavirus Stimulus and Relaxed Lockdowns

published on : 08 May 2020 03:34 PM

Americans’ stress over their finances posted its steepest decline in more than four years in May, as the federal government’s $2.2 trillion stimulus package helps mitigate the economic pain being felt by individuals due to the coronavirus outbreak, and a growing number of states begin to ease lockdown measures, according to the latest reading of the Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index, a monthly measure of Americans’ views on the state of their finances. The index declined by 5.8 points, or 8.3 percent, in May, to a score of 64.0, easing off a more than 11-year high of 69.8 set in April. This marks the sharpest drop in the index since October 2015, likely reflecting a hopefulness that the worst of the coronavirus crisis may be behind us and that the economy will soon recover. Despite the decline, the index remains above a reading of 50.0 for the third straight month, an indication that Americans feel more financial stress at this time, as job losses triggered by the outbreak continue to mount. More than two in five (43 percent) Americans surveyed reported that they have lost their jobs or work hours as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, up from 38 percent in April. This month’s easing in stress levels was widespread, our survey shows. In May, all 21 groups that Investor’s Business Daily and TechnoMetrica track on a monthly basis posted declines in the index, a complete reversal from April, when every group reported gains in financial stress.

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President Trump Pulls Even With Joe Biden Amid Coronavirus Crisis: IBD/TIPP Poll (Investor’s Business Daily)

published on : 1 May 2020 08:19 AM

President Donald Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden are tied in the 2020 presidential race, as the president’s job approval rating holds steady amid the coronavirus crisis, according to the latest national Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP Poll. In May, Trump and Biden each garnered support from 43 percent of registered voters. Another 5 percent of respondents planned to vote for someone else, while 7 percent were undecided. The tie marks a notable shift from April, when Biden held a six-point lead over Trump. The president is benefiting from increased support among Independents and Democrats, our poll shows. Trump has a slight edge among Independents this month, 36 percent to 35 percent, after trailing Biden by nine points in April. Also, Trump doubled his support among Democrats over the past month, from six percent to 12 percent. The president’s improved standing in the IBD/TIPP Poll comes as his approval numbers remain stable. This month, 44 percent of Americans say that they approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 44 percent disapprove. In April, 45 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved of Trump’s job performance. Americans continue to give Trump some credit for his response to the coronavirus outbreak, with 41 percent giving the president a grade of ‘A’ or ‘B’ for his handling of the crisis, and 39 percent assigning a ‘D’ or ‘F’ rating. Last month, Trump received high marks from 43 percent of Americans, while 41 percent bestowed lower ratings. However, Americans have a more pessimistic view of the administration’s initial response to the coronavirus crisis. Just over two in five (42 percent) consider the early efforts taken by the administration to contain the spread of the coronavirus as effective, while more than half (52 percent) viewed these actions as ineffective. Meanwhile, the president continues to get strong reviews for his economic stewardship. This month, half (50 percent) of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, up from 48 percent in April. Disapproval of the Trump economy dropped from 31 percent to 28 percent.

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States Reopening From Coronavirus Shutdowns Too Soon, Americans Say: IBD/TIPP Poll (Investor’s Business Daily)

published on : 30 Apr 2020 03:07 PM

Americans are pessimistic about a swift end to coronavirus lockdowns, even as a growing number of states begin easing social distancing restrictions to allow more businesses to reopen, according to the national Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP Poll for May. Just 15 percent of Americans believed that their states would be ready to reopen by May 1, a day which saw more than a dozen states relaxing lockdown measures aimed at containing the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, approximately one-third (34 percent) think that their states should reopen by May 15. Close to one-half (49 percent) of Americans feel that states should wait until June 1 or beyond to reopen. Less than one in five (16 percent) survey respondents were not sure. Americans’ skepticism over lifting state shutdowns reflects an uneasiness about returning to a number of public activities once the country reopens, our survey suggests. A slight majority (54 percent) of Americans would feel comfortable going to the grocery store, followed by an in-person visit to the doctor (44 percent), attending family gatherings (40 percent), dining out at a restaurant (35 percent), going to the barbershop or salon (33 percent), and returning to their workplace (30 percent). When it comes to the response to the coronavirus crisis, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) receives the highest favorability rating, at 62 percent, followed by state governments (59 percent), local governments (57 percent), the World Health Organization (49 percent), the White House Coronavirus Task Force (46 percent), and Congress (36 percent). President Donald Trump continues to receive some credit for his response to the crisis, with 41 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving of his handling of the coronavirus situation.

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IBD/TIPP Poll Shows Economic Optimism Rising Slightly as States Prepare to Reopen

published on : 05 May 2020 10:00 AM

Consumer sentiment rebounded slightly in May from a more than three-year low set the previous month, as states begin easing lockdown measures and government stimulus checks provide much-needed financial relief to Americans amid the coronavirus crisis, according to the latest reading of the Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading indicator for the health of consumer spending and the economy. The index rose by 1.9 points, or 4 percent, this month, to a reading of 49.7, after falling to its lowest level since September 2016 in April. The gain follows last month’s 11.3-percent drop in the index, which was the largest monthly decline since October 2013. However, the measure remains in pessimistic territory for the second straight month, highlighting the continued uncertainty over how deep and lasting the economic fallout from the coronavirus will prove to be. This month’s improvement in the index reflects a brightening in Americans’ short-term outlook for the economy and their personal finances. The Six-Month Economic Outlook subindex, a measure of how Americans feel about economic conditions in the next six months, increased by 4.3 points, or 11.3 percent, in May, to a score of 42.3, rebounding from its lowest level in more three years set last month. The Personal Financial Outlook component, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, bounced off a more than six-year low this month, gaining 2.7 points, or 5.4 percent, to a reading of 52.9, marking its 79th consecutive month in optimistic territory. The Confidence in Federal Economic Policies subindex, a proprietary IBD/TIPP measure of views on how government economic policies are working, represented the sole component measure to a post a month-over-month decline in May, falling 1.3 points, or 2.4 percent, to 53.8, following a 4.8-percent gain last month.

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Americans Back President Trump On Coronavirus Crisis; Overall Approval Rating Rises: IBD/TIPP Poll (Investor’s Business Daily)

published on : 6 Apr 2020 04:33 PM

President Donald Trump’s approval rating improved in April as the coronavirus crisis gripped the country, according to the national Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP Poll. This month, 45 percent of Americans say that they approve of Trump’s job performance, up from 41 percent in March. Meanwhile, the share of Americans who disapprove of the president declined by nine points, from 54 percent to 45 percent. The poll suggests that President Trump is getting a boost from his response to the coronavirus outbreak. More than two in five (43 percent) U.S. households give Trump an “A” or “B” grade for his handling of the coronavirus situation, while 41 percent assign a rating of “D” or “F.” The president also continues to receive relatively high marks on the economy. Close to half of Americans (48 percent) approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, assigning a grade of “A” or “B,” a one-point gain from March. When it comes to the 2020 presidential election, former Vice President Joe Biden remains ahead of Trump, 47 percent to 41 percent. In March, Biden led Trump by a margin of 49 percent to 46 percent.

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